Iraq War Compels
Pentagon To Rethink Big-Picture Strategy
By Mark Mazzetti
Los Angeles Times
March 11, 2005
Pg. 1WASHINGTON — The war in
Iraq is forcing top Pentagon planners to rethink several key
assumptions about the use of military power and has called into
question the vision set out nearly four years ago that the armed
forces can win wars and keep the peace with small numbers of
fast-moving, lightly armed troops.
As the Pentagon begins a comprehensive review that will map the
future of America's armed forces, many Defense Department officials
are acknowledging that an intractable Iraqi insurgency they didn't
foresee has undermined the military strategy.
In the weeks after the Sept. 11 attacks, the Pentagon unveiled a new
agenda that promised to prepare the military to fight smaller wars
against terrorist networks and to swiftly defeat rogue states.
With Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld pushing for a "lighter,
more lethal and highly mobile fighting force," the Pentagon scrapped
as outdated the requirement that the U.S. military be large enough
to simultaneously fight two large-scale wars against massed enemy
armies. And it spent little time worrying about how to keep the
peace after the shooting stopped.
Something happened on the way to the wars of the future: The
Pentagon became bogged down in an old-fashioned, costly and
drawn-out war of occupation. Though the rapid assault on Baghdad in
March 2003 went smoothly, it is the bloody two years since that have
diverged from the Pentagon's blueprint.
"When people were thinking about regime change, they really weren't
thinking about the long-term stabilization and peacekeeping
operations. There was a view that in terms of gross numbers, [regime
change operations] wouldn't last as long as Iraq has," said Rand
Corp. fellow Andrew Hoehn, who led the Pentagon's last major review
in 2001.
As the Pentagon begins its assessment, it has 145,000 troops
stationed in a country they were supposed to have left months ago.
And with tensions rising between Washington and the two other
countries labeled by President Bush as part of an "axis of evil" —
Iran and North Korea — there is a growing belief within the
military's ranks that the White House's rhetoric about preemptive
war is out of sync with the U.S. military's strained resources.
Some inside the Pentagon criticized senior Bush administration
officials for assuming that the war in Iraq would end when U.S.
troops toppled Saddam Hussein's regime — and for assuming the U.S.
could reduce its troop presence to 30,000 soldiers within six months
of Baghdad's fall.
"The administration was flat wrong on Iraq because they had blinders
on," said a senior Army official who worked on strategic planning at
the Pentagon. "There's now a much greater perception that we need to
know what we're signing up for before we get into it."
As a consequence, the importance of peacekeeping operations and help
from allied militaries — ideas that some discounted three years ago
as remnants of the President Clinton era — are back in vogue at the
Pentagon.
Although born out of a blizzard of complex diagrams and flow charts,
the Pentagon assessment, known as the Quadrennial Defense Review, or
QDR, is not an academic exercise.
First undertaken after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the QDR is
the playbook the Pentagon uses to guide decisions such as how big
the military should be and which big-ticket weapons the Defense
Department ought to purchase.
The Pentagon's decision in 2001 to scrap the two-war doctrine freed
war planners from requiring enough heavy armor divisions to
simultaneously fight two major wars, and allowed the Pentagon to
invest in more futuristic weaponry like a missile defense system.
"We're always going to have a limited budget. So when we're making
decisions about where to spend the next dollar, you want everyone
clear about which sheet of music we're all singing off of," said
Michele Flournoy of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies. Flournoy was one of the lead Pentagon officials on the 1997
review, which embraced the two-war doctrine.
The new review, which is just beginning, will not be completed until
early next year. Last fall, a Pentagon advisory board predicted that
the protracted stability operations underway in Iraq and Afghanistan
were a model for the U.S. military's future. The Pentagon has
focused too little on preparing for what happens after major combat
operations end, said the Defense Science Board, which advises
Rumsfeld.
"Some have believed, or hoped, that the technological and conceptual
advances … can reduce the time and personnel needed for
stabilization and reconstruction," the board said. "Unfortunately,
we do not find that is the case."
The Defense Science Board report was commissioned to guide the
upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review studies, and it is part of a
growing body of Pentagon analysis signaling a shift in Defense
Department thinking.
Another possible shift has to do with the perception of U.S. allies.
With the Army and Marine Corps straining to meet the Pentagon's
troop requirements for Iraq and Afghanistan, the participation of
allies has taken on greater importance. Foreign troops would be
necessary for any large-scale operation the U.S. military might
undertake, planners said, if only to share the post-conflict burdens
such as those confronting the U.S. military in Iraq.
"There are smarter, more efficient ways to do regime change and
occupation," said one senior civilian official at the Pentagon. "One
of those ways is to rely much more on our friends and allies to do
the back-end work."
In recent weeks, Bush administration officials have taken a far more
conciliatory tone with some of America's oldest European allies.
Whereas Rumsfeld once slighted NATO's western European members —
referring to them as "old Europe" — he poked fun at those comments
to win over European ministers during a trip to the continent last
month.
"That was old Rumsfeld," he said.
On Thursday, Rumsfeld welcomed French Defense Minister Michele
Alliot-Marie to the Pentagon, praising the cooperation between the
nations' militaries over the years.
The Iraq war has also shown the weakness in a strategy created by
the Pentagon in 2003 to help plan major operations.
The 10-30-30 construct said that the U.S. military should plan
military actions to seize the initiative within 10 days of the start
of an offensive, achieve limited military objectives within 30 days,
and be prepared within another 30 days to shift military resources
to another area of the world.
Many Pentagon officials fear that the success Iraqi insurgents have
had in preventing a U.S. troop reduction in Iraq could be the new
rule, rather than the exception.
As few enemies choose to fight the U.S. military head-on, they might
opt instead to fight protracted rear-guard insurgencies.
"I think that the Pentagon realizes by now that 10-30-30 is largely
outdated," said Frank Hoffman of the Marine Corps' Center for
Emerging Threats and Opportunities, a contributor to the Defense
Science Board study. "It presumes a model of warfare that we
ourselves have made obsolete."
Hoffman said no adversary was likely to present U.S. forces with a
conventional threat that can be defeated in 30 days.
"Our enemy's metric is protracting conflicts to 3,000 days or more,"
he said. "Prolonged insurgency, death by a thousand cuts, is their
answer to 'shock and awe.' " |